Quinta-feira, 14 de Julho de 2011

Eurointelligence Daily Briefing

enviado por Julio Marques Mota

Sarkozy wants a summit, but Merkel does not want to go

  • There were unconfirmed reports about an EU summit yesterday, as requested by several leaders, including Nicolas Sarkozy;
  • Angela Merkel is much less keen on the idea but circumstances might force a decision soon;
  • another extraordinary day on the markets yesterday, as Italian 10-year yields push through 6% at one point;
  • Willem Buiter says Italian re-rating is game changer, as this becomes a systemic crisis;
  • German Bild tabloid agrees, for the sake of Italy;
  • Zapatero calls on Germany in particular to make greater efforts at crisis resolution;
  • at yesterday’s Ecofin consensus emerged that some form of selective default is unavoidable for Greece, which would be part of the second loan package;
  • on the table is the proposal for Greece to buy back its bond at 50% discount for roughly €70bn with EFSF money;
  • The second loan package for Greece would then need to be bigger than €115bn ;Wolfgang Münchau says situation extremely grave as leaders need to do a lot more than agree a Greek package to get out of this crisis;
  • as politicians call for a private sector participation, Moody’s has downgraded Ireland to junk, citing policy signals as among the reasons;
  • Ewald Nowotny says rating agencies add no analytic value or understanding, and express only view, which are damaging to the eurozone;
  • Giulio Tremonti seeks Italian parliament to approve his  austerity package by Sunday revamped to include privatisation and liberalisation plans;
  • some IMF directors have expressed concern that Italy’s budget savings are mostly backloaded, and thus not sufficiently credible;
  • EU finance ministers promissed support for banks that fail the stress tests;
  • First leaks of test results to be presented on Friday find that six Spanish bank and one Austrian and a Greek bank failed the stress test;
  • IMF warns Germany of low growth trend;
  • the French Greens, meanwhile, elected the Norwegian born Eva Joly as their candidate for the French presidential elections.


Reuters reports that there will be an emergency EU summit this weekend, following another day of awful news for the eurozone. Italian 10-year yields shot through 6% at one point, before settling at 5.7% in the afternoon, on the news that Giulio Tremonti headed back for talks with Italy’s opposition, amid signs that the Italian parliament may be passing Mr Tremonti’s budget with a few days.

Yesterday’s highly volatile trading underlines the markets’ acute nervousness in the eurozone’s third largest economy. Moody’s downgrade Irish debt to junk status, citing concerns over a selective default of Greece.


publicado por Luis Moreira às 10:00
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